Subject: Re: Uncontrolled Lunar Impact Predicted for 5 August 2026
From: Daniel Adamo <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 21:43:31 -0700

ATIG Members-

With the subject 2025-010D impact now history, numerous revisions and additions have been incorporated in the attached "R5" update to this paper.  The threat of impact ejecta to South Korea's Danuri lunar orbiter was cause for its 22 July evasive maneuver as reported in the new Section 5 beginning on p. 13.  Updated material begins at that point and extends through Section 7's Concluding Remarks.  Questions and comments on R5 are invited, as the safety of all future cislunar infrastructure could depend on filling the current policy void failing to govern translunar upper stage disposals.  Redlines with respect to the previous R4 baseline can be provided on request.

-Dan

From: Adamo Dan <[email-masked]>
Date: Wednesday, June 3, 2026 at 10:27
Subject: Re: Uncontrolled Lunar Impact Predicted for 5 August 2026

ATIG Members-

The attached revision to May 10's paper on lunar impact of Falcon 9 translunar upper stage 2025-010D completely supersedes previous drafts and benefits chiefly from two input sources.  First, a generous infusion of information from SpaceX has been incorporated, including support for a civil space policy requiring solar orbit disposal of translunar artifacts.  The new Section 4 details how a Falcon 9 translunar second stage launched barely a month after 2025-010D, underwent successful solar orbit disposal, thanks in no small part to responsible payload requirements.

The second source of new input is Project Pluto's Bill Gray, who has, based on observations through May, kindly supplied an update to his original 2025-010D impact prediction.  The new Section 5 Epilogue tracks trends between the two predictions.  It is hoped the Epilogue will see additional input from Project Pluto and JPL before 5 August and from LRO imagery afterwards.  Note well these trends and the dynamics/statistics influencing them, as planetary defense scenarios ending in an Earth impact would likely play out along these lines too.

-Dan

From: Adamo Dan <[email-masked]>
Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026 at 14:11
Subject: Uncontrolled Lunar Impact Predicted for 5 August 2026

ATIG Members-

A Falcon 9 upper stage with International Designator 2025-010D launched on 15 January 2025 is predicted to impact the Moon at hypervelocity in less than 3 months.  The attached paper describes 2025-010D's trajectory and proceeds to suggest strategies leading to more responsible disposal of upper stages enabling missions to cislunar space and the Moon's surface.  This may sound like cosmic tree-hugging to some, but the Moon will soon supplant ISS as humanity's largest asset in space.  It's time we started protecting our only known natural satellite accordingly.  Questions and comments on this paper are invited.

-Dan